Introduction to the Consumer Price Index (CPI)CPI is a statistical indicator that measures the percentage of change that occurs in the prices of goods and services reflecting the consumption of consumers in the society during a period of time, called the comparison period attributed to another time period known as the reference period. This index is important since it is an economic indicator which is used by economists and decision-makers.The CPI is composed of a group of goods and services.
Prices’ data are collected on regular basis (weekly – monthly – quarterly) according to the nature of commodity or service. It is worth mentioning that the CPI has been rebased from 2013 to 2018.Looking at the relative importance of the year 2018, it’s found that the pattern of household consumption has not changed much from the past five years, and this is noticeable in the slight changes that the relative importance showed on the major groups of expenditure, where the relative weight of the food and beverage group increased from 12.58% to 13.45,with a 0.87% amount of increase, relative weight of the health group increased from 1.79% to 2.65%, with an increase of 0.86%, and the relative weight of the recreation and culture group changed from 12.68 to 11.1, with a decrease of 1.58%. As for the housing group, the relative weight decreased by 0.72%, and it became 21.17% from what it was in the previous basket (21.89%).
The 2018-based CPI is presented using the latest version of the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP), which contains twelve majors’ groups, staring from “Food and Beverages” to end with “Miscellaneous Goods and Services”. This report presents the CPI during the three months of Q1-2023, where it is exposed to the changes that occurred during that period compared to the previous period and the corresponding period in the previous year, with an analysis of the most important causes.
2. Main features of CPI in the First Quarter of 20231. The overall CPI amounted to 105.43 points in Q1-2023, a decrease of 1.3% compared to Q4 of 2022 (previous quarter). comparing with its corresponding quarter of 2022, the annual change increased to 4.2%.
The index for food and beverages reached 106.62 points, with a decrease of 1.0% compared to the previous quarter, when compared with the corresponding quarter of 2022, a decrease of 0.1% was recorded.
3. The index for the group of “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” reached 98.09 points, remained the same compared to the previous quarter, and an increase of 9.6%a when compared to its corresponding quarter of 2022.
4. A decrease has been recorded in five groups, when compared with previous quarter, that were “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages”. Furnishing, Household equipment and Routine Household”, “Communication”, “Recreation and Culture”, and “Restaurants and Hotels”.
5. An increase in prices observed in five groups, compared with previous quarter, that were “Clothing and Footwear”. “Health”, “Transport”, “Education”, and “Miscellaneous Goods and Services”.
6. “Recreation and Culture” has the highest decrease with 9.4%, while “Education” has the highest increase with 2.6%, when compared with the previous quarter.7. No change has been recorded on “Tobacco”.
Price trends in the First Quarter of 2023The overall CPI in this quarter attained 105.43 points due to several changes occurred in the groups of goods and services composing the overall CPI.
The seven groups exceeded the overall CPI:
1. “Tobacco” at 246.0 point.
2. “Education” at 114.91 point.
3. “Recreation and Culture” at 112.12.
4. Transport” at 111.92 point.
5. “Restaurants and Hotels” at 109.33 point.
6. “Miscellaneous goods and services” at 109.07 point.
7. “Food and Beverages” at 106.62 point.
The other five groups remained under the overall CPI (105.43) point; they are as follows:
1. “Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” at 104.02 point.
2. “Health” at 99.91 point.
3. “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” group reached 98.09 point.
4. “Clothing and Footwear” at 94.49 point.
5. “Communication” at 89.49 point.
4. Details on Comparing Q1 of 2023 with the previous Quarter.
The overall CPI in Q1 2023 decrease by 1.3% from (Q-o-Q) Q4-2022.
A. five groups decreased (in line with the trend of the overall CPI), namely:
1. “Recreation and Culture “by 9.4%.
2. “Restaurant and Hotel” by 4.8%.
3. “Communication” by 2.2%.
4. “Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” by 1.5%.
5. “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” by 1.0%.B. Five groups increased in this quarter (Q1, 2023):
1. “Education” by 2.6%.
2. “Transport” by 2.0%
3. “Miscellaneous goods and services” by 1.7%
4. “Health” by 1.4%
5. “Clothes and Footwear” by 0.2%
C. “Tobacco” and “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuel” both remained stable between Q1, 2023 and Q4, 2022.5. Details on Comparison Q1 of 2023 with Q1 of 2022 (Y-o-Y): The overall CPI attained 105.43 points in Q1 2023. Thus, the Y-o-Y change (calculated by comparing the current quarter with its corresponding one in 2022) increased by 4.2%. In this context, the following remarks are observed: A. A Positive change has been recorded in seven groups as follow:1. “Recreation and Culture” by 15.6%. 2. "Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other fuel” by 9.6%.3. "Restaurant and Hotels” by 4.5%.4. “Education” by 3.7%.5. “Clothing and Footwear” by 2.4%.6. “Transport” by 2.0%.7. “Health” by 1.6%B. Negative change has been recorded in three groups as follow:1. "Communication” by 4.8%2. “Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” by 0.2%.3. “Food and Beverages” by 0.1%C. “Tobacco” and “Miscellaneous goods and services “remained stable between Q1, 2023 and Q1, 2022.
