1.Introduction to the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI is a statistical indicator that measures the percentage of change that occurs in the prices of goods and services reflecting the consumption of consumers in the society during a period, called the comparison period attributed to another time known as the reference period. This index is important since it is an economic indicator which is used by economists and decision-makers.
The CPI is composed of a group of goods and services. Prices’ data are collected on a regular basis (weekly – monthly – quarterly) according to the nature of commodity or service. It is worth mentioning that the CPI has been rebased from 2013 to 2018 as of Jaunaury 2020.
Looking at the relative importance of the year 2018, it’s found that the pattern of household consumption has not changed much from the past five years, and this is noticeable in the slight changes that the relative importance showed on the major groups of expenditure, where the relative weight of the food and beverage group increased from 12.58% to 13.45,with a 0.87% amount of increase, relative weight of the health group increased from 1.79% to 2.65%, with an increase of 0.86%, and the relative weight of the recreation and culture group changed from 12.68 to 11.1, with a decrease of 1.58%. As for the housing group, the relative weight decreased by 0.72%, and it became 21.17% from what it was in the previous basket (21.89%).
The 2018-based CPI is presented using the latest version of the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP), which contains twelve majors’ groups, starting from “Food and Beverages” to end with “Miscellaneous Goods and Services”.
This report presents the CPI during the three months of Q3-2023, where it is exposed to the changes that occurred during that period compared to the previous period and the corresponding period in the previous year, with an analysis of the most important causes.
2.Main features of CPI in the Third Quarter of 2023
1.The overall CPI amounted to 106.69 points in Q3-2023, an increase of 0.2% compared to Q2 of 2023 (previous quarter). Compared with the corresponding quarter of 2022, the annual change increased to 2.4%.
2.The index for food and beverages reached 109.85 points, with an increase of 4.0% compared to the previous quarter, when compared with the corresponding quarter of 2022, an increase of 1.5% was recorded.
3.The index for the group of “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” reached 96.26 points, with decrease of 1.9% when compared to the previous quarter, and an increase of 1.6% when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2022.
4.An increase has been recorded in six groups, when compared with previous quarter, that were “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages”, “Furnishing, Household equipment and Routine Household”, “Transport”, “Communication”, “Recreation and Culture” and “Education”.
5.A decrease in prices observed in four groups, compared with previous quarter, that were “Clothing and Footwear”, “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuel”, “Health”, “Restaurants and Hotels”, and “Miscellaneous Goods and Services”.
6.“Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” has the highest increase with 4.0%, while “Restaurants and Hotels” has the highest decrease with 3.3%, when compared with the previous quarter.
7.No change has been recorded on “Tobacco”.
3.Price trends in the Third Quarter of 2023
The overall CPI in this quarter attained 106.69 points due to several changes occurred in the groups of goods and services composing the overall CPI. seven groups have exceeded the overall CPI, Other five groups remained under the overall CPI rate.
The seven groups exceeded the overall CPI:
1.“Tobacco” at 246.0 point
2.“Recreation and Culture” at 118.81 point.
3.“Education” at 117.34 point.
4.“Transport” at 111.02 point.
5.“Food and Beverages” at 109.85 point.
6.“Miscellaneous goods and services” at 107.60 point.
7.“Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” at 107.88 point.
The other five groups remained under the overall CPI (106.69) point; they are as follows:
1.“Communication” at 105.44 point.
2.“Restaurants and Hotels” at 103.20 point.
3.“Health” at 98.38 point.
4.“Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” group reached 96.26 point.
5.“Clothing and Footwear” at 91.64 point.
4.Details on Comparing Q3 of 2023 with the previous Quarter
The overall CPI in Q3 2023 increased by 0.2% from (Q-o-Q) Q2-2023.
A. six groups increased (in line with the trend of the overall CPI), namely:
1.“Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” by 4.0%
2.“Education “by 1.8%.
3.“Recreation and Culture” by 1.7%.
4.“Communication” by 1.2%.
5.“Transport” by 0.6%.
6.Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” by 0.1%.
B. Five groups decreased in this quarter (Q3, 2023):
1.“Restaurant and Hotel” by 3.3%.
2.“Miscellaneous goods and services” by 2.0%.
3.“Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuel” by 1.9%.
4.“Clothing and Footwear” by 1.7%.
5.“Health” by 1.3%.
C. “Tobacco” remained stable between Q3, 2023 and Q2, 2023
5.Details on Comparison Q3 of 2023 with Q3 of 2022 (Y-o-Y):
The overall CPI attained 106.69 points in Q2 2023. Thus, the Y-o-Y change increased by 2.4%. In this context, the following remarks are observed:
A. A Positive change has been recorded in nine groups as follow:
1."Communication” by 15.8%.
2.“Recreation and Culture” by 5.9%.
3.“Education” by 5.5%.
4.Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household” by 2.3%.
5.“Transport” by 2.0%.
6."Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other fuel” by 1.6%.
7.“Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” by 1.5%
8.“Health” by 0.3%.
9.“Miscellaneous goods and services” by 0.1%.
B.Negative change has been recorded in two groups as follow:
1.Restaurant and Hotel” by 4.6%.
2.“Clothing and Footwear” by 1.1%.
C.“Tobacco remained stable between Q3, 2023 and Q3, 2022.
