The Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDP&S) released today, 14 December 2014, the Qatar Economic Outlook 2014–2016 Update. The Update confirms the forecasts made early in its June counterpart: real growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) of 6.3% is still expected in 2014. In 2015 growth is now pegged at a solid 7.7%, driven by gathering expansion of the non-hydrocarbon economy.  Little change is expected in 2016, with growth of 7.5%.HE Dr. Saleh Al Nabit, Minister of MDP&S, stated that “In 2015, with momentum still gathering in non-hydrocarbons, the sector’s share of GDP will overtake that of oil and gas, and continue rising in 2016 and beyond.  This diversification of output and the broadening of the economic base is very welcome.  However, to support long-term deepening of the economic base, more needs to be done to boost private sector participation in the economy and the upgrading of skills, technology and productivity.”Inflation in 2014 is forecast to average 3.0%, again unchanged from the June forecast.  Only marginal increases over this number are seen after that, with inflation inching up to 3.5% in 2015 and to 3.7% in 2016.  While a rising population and vigorous economic activity are creating price pressures on local, non-traded services (such as rents), a benign global inflationary environment is keeping firmly in check the cost of Qatar’s consumer goods imports. A large fiscal surplus in FY2014/15 is again expected, bolstered by substantial investment income. However, the surplus is expected to narrow in 2015 and 2016 as transfers of investment income moderate and as capital spending commitments climb, at the same time as a growing economy and rising population create pressures that place further demands on spending.  Although staying weighty as a share of GDP, the current account surplus is set to continue drifting down, mainly on declining hydrocarbon export revenue, rising imports and higher foreign workers’ remittances. The steep decline in oil prices seen in recent months will affect fiscal revenues.  Yet Qatar still has a substantial fiscal buffer that will help cushion the domestic economy from potential adverse fall-out. Against this, however, Qatar’s “break-even” oil price is expected to rise in 2015 and 2016, and the buffer could narrow. “A variety of initiatives now underway at the Ministry of Finance, which will promote a forward-looking approach to fiscal management and improved planning and running of the state’s capital programme, will help shield Qatar against oil price shocks in the years ahead,” commented Dr. Saleh.The Update is available Here.