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The Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) has released the quarterly sequence of accounts providing preliminary estimates of the National Income, Saving and also the expenditure components of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014 at current prices.
Quarterly Sequence of Accounts for the total economy of Qatar
The Quarterly Sequence of Accounts (QSOA) for the total economy of Qatar provides a comprehensive picture of current economic developments in the country. The major macroeconomic variables like GDP, National Income, Savings etc. which are the balancing items of respective accounts are discussed in the following paragraphs. Table (1) presents the QSOA for the four quarters of 2013 and 2014. Table (2) presents a [Y-o-Y] and [Q-o-Q] comparison of the estimates of 2014.
National Income
The quarterly estimates of Gross National Income (GNI), for the Q4, 2014 is placed at 186.47 Bn QR which shows an increase of 4.9%, when compared to the GNI estimate of Q4, 2013 [177.83 Bn QR]. It may be seen from the Table (1) that the net outflow of property income from Qatar has shown a decline of 34.1%. This explains the Year-on-year (Y-o-Y) higher rise [4.9%] in the Gross National income in this quarter, when compared with the GDP rise of 2.4% in the same period. Similarly, on quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, while GNI in Q4, 2014 has gone up by 1.8% over the GNI of Q3, 2014, the increase in GDP has been 0.7%.
Saving of the Nation
The Gross National saving has been estimated at 115.66 Bn QR in Q4, 2014 as against 112.05 Bn QR recorded in Q4, 2013, showing a Year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise of 3.2%. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q3), the gross saving has gone up by 1.8%. The gross saving ratio to nominal GDP in Q4, 2014 is placed at 59.5%. The comparative figures for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 are estimated to be 58.8% and 59.0%.More details are available in Table (1). Towards the end of this table, some of the other key economic indicators, shown as a percentage of nominal GDP of the country are also presented for analytical purposes.
Expenditure components of GDP
The estimates of the expenditure components of GDP namely: Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE), Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), Gross Capital Formation (GCF); Exports of Goods and Services (F.O.B); and Imports of Goods and services (F.O.B) for the Q4, 2014 along with the same for Q4, 2013 (for Y-o-Y comparison) are presented in the following paragraphs:
Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE)
The Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) in Q4, 2014 has been placed at 28.73 Bn QR as against 26.37 Bn QR estimated in Q4, 2013, showing an increase of 9.0%. Rising population and the price rise of consumer items in the country have led to this rise. The share of HFCE in the nominal GDP, in Q4, 2014 is estimated at 14.8%. The corresponding figures for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 are 13.7% and 13.9% respectively.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) for Q4, 2014 has been estimated at 27.71 Bn QR as against 25.30 Bn QR recorded in Q4 of 2013, showing a Y-o-Y rise of 9.6%. This increase in Government spending is in line with the rise in production of public goods and services to cater the growing population.The percentage share of GFCE in nominal GDP during Q4, 2014 has been estimated at 14.3%. The corresponding shares for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 have been 14.0% and 13.3% respectively.
Gross Capital Formation
The Gross Capital Formation (GCF) has been estimated at 77.58 Bn QR in Q4 of 2014 as against 60.82 Bn QR in Q4, 2013, showing an increase of 27.6%. Major investments in construction sector especially in the infrastructure related projects have led to this rise. The percentage share of GCF in nominal GDP during Q4, 2014 has been estimated at 39.9%. The corresponding shares for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 have been 34.7% and 32.0% respectively.
Exports of goods and services including re-exports
The total value of exports (at F.O.B) from the country has been estimated at 116.48 Bn QR in Q4 of 2014 as against 131.80 Bn QR in Q4, 2013, showing a decline of 11.6%. This Y-o-Y fall in the total exports during Q4, 2014 is noticed mainly in Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials.The percentage share of exports in nominal GDP during Q4, 2014 has been estimated at 59.9%. The corresponding shares for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 exports in GDP have been 68.4% and 69.4% respectively.
Imports of Goods and services
The total value of imports (at F.O.B) in the country has been estimated at 56.11 Bn QR in Q4 of 2014 as against 54.43 Bn QR in Q4, 2013, showing an increase of 3.1%. This Q4, 2014, [Y-o-Y] rise in the imports is seen in Machinery & transport equipment, certain Manufactured goods, Food, live animals etc. The percentage share of imports in nominal GDP during Q4, 2014 has been estimated at 28.9%. The corresponding shares for Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2013 have been 30.7% and 28.7% respectively.
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For further details on expenditure components of Quarterly GDP and sequence of accounts, ministry’s website at www.mdps.gov.qa may be referred.
The next Press Release on Quarterly Sequence of Accounts, Estimates of National Income, Savings and Expenditure Components of GDP for the first quarter, 2015 will be published on the 15th of July, 2015.