Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) have released the preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current and constant prices (with new base 2013) for the first quarter (Q1) of 2015. The estimates have been produced by using the data collected through the Quarterly Economic Indicator Survey and from other source agencies.• Nominal GDP [GDP at current prices] estimate of Q1, 2015 [173,028 Mn QR] over Q1, 2014 GDP estimate [201,148 Mn QR] declines by 14.0%.• Real GDP [GDP at constant (2013) prices] growth is 4.1% in the Q1, 2015 over Q1, 2014 GDP estimate.Q1, 2015 Nominal & Real GDP Estimates The quarterly GDP at current prices in the Q1 of 2015 is estimated at 173.03 Bn QR. This represents a decrease of 14.0% compared to the estimate of Q1 of 2014 placed at 201.15 Bn QR. When compared to previous quarter [Q4 of 2014] estimate of 183.56 Bn QR, a decrease of 5.7% has been noticed.

The quarterly GDP in the Q1 of 2015, at constant (2013) prices [199.21 Bn QR] shows a growth of 4.1% compared to the estimate of Q1 of 2014 [191.31 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q4 of 2014] estimate of 192.57 Bn QR, the growth in this quarter is 3.4%. Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas) The nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) estimate of this sector in the Q1, 2015 has been 75.24 Bn QR, which shows a decline of 31.5% over the estimate of Q1, 2014, placed at 109.86 Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter (Q4 of 2014) estimate, there has been a fall of 12.5% in the GVA of this sector. The real GVA of this sector in Q1, 2015 [101.13 Bn QR], shows a decline of 0.1% over the estimate of Q1, 2014 [101.24 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q4 of 2014) estimate, there has been a rise of 4.2% in the GVA of this sector. The reduction in international price levels of crude oil in this quarter has led to sharper decline in nominal GVA of this sector. Non-Mining and Quarrying The nominal GVA estimate of these sectors in the Q1, 2015 has been placed at 97.79 Bn QR, which shows an increase of 7.1% over the estimate of Q1, 2014 [91.29 Bn QR]. The real GVA of these sectors in Q1, 2015, totaled 98.08 Bn QR, which shows a growth of 8.9% over the corresponding quarter [Q1, 2014] GVA estimate [90.07 Bn QR]. The high growth in the Q1, 2015 is the result of double digit rise seen mainly in construction, trading, hospitality and financial sectors, coupled with over 10% jump in the country’s population in Q1, 2015. Details of the sectoral level preliminary nominal and real GVA estimates in Q1, 2015 and Q1 & Q4 of 2014 are available in the Tables 1 and 2 of the Press Release. An analysis by major industry group, comparing the performance in Q1 of 2015 with the corresponding quarter (Q1) in 2014 [Year-on-Year Basis] and with fourth quarter (Q4) [Quarter-on-Quarter basis] of 2014 is given in the following paragraphs.    For more details, click here